NFL Kicks of the Week, Week 8: Chad Ryland Wins It in Overtime After a Missed PAT

Chad Ryland missed an extra point that would have won the game in regulation. Then he lined up a 42-yarder in overtime in Dallas and made it, and the Cardinals beat the Cowboys 33-30. Our model gave the kick an 87% chance, which makes it a fair test of nerve more than distance. It is the Kick of the Week.

Kick of the Week: Chad Ryland, 42 yards, Cardinals at Cowboys

The NFL's game recap, since we couldn't find a clip of the kick alone from the league or a broadcaster.

Arizona and Dallas were tied at 30 when Chad Ryland came on at AT&T Stadium. Gardner Minshew's touchdown pass to Michael Wilson with six seconds left in regulation had tied it, and Ryland's extra point, which would have won it, missed. Overtime began with a three-and-out for each team. Then, with 2:58 on the clock at the snap, Ryland kicked from 42 and the Arizona Cardinals won 33-30. Casey Kreiter snapped and Blake Gillikin held. It was Arizona's fifth straight win over Dallas.

From 41 to 43 yards, NFL kickers made 393 of 478 tries over the last five seasons, 82%. This one was a 42-yarder indoors, a kick Ryland makes most of the time, and what lifted it to the top of our list is the moment: a game-ending kick in overtime right after a miss. Ryland is 19 of 21 this season, with a long of 60.

Runner-up: Tyler Bass, 56 yards, Buffalo Bills

Tyler Bass hit a 56-yarder in the first quarter with Buffalo up seven. From 55 to 57 yards, kickers made 172 of 271 over the last five seasons, 63.5%. Bass finished 3 for 3, added a 51-yarder before halftime, and led the week in MAKE at +0.59. The Buffalo Bills beat Baltimore 36-10, and Bass is 16 for 16 this season.

Third: Drew Stevens, 56 yards, Washington Commanders

Drew Stevens made another 56-yarder late in the first quarter with Washington down 10. He had missed from 55, wide right, earlier in the same quarter. He made his next kick, too, a 39-yarder just before the half, and the Washington Commanders beat Philadelphia 27-10. Stevens is 4 of 7 from 50 or more this season.

Fourth: Matt Gay, 53 yards, Las Vegas Raiders

Matt Gay kicked a 53-yarder with 31 seconds left at the snap and the Raiders up two, which made it a five-point game. Kickers made 73.5% from 52 to 54 yards over the last five seasons. The Las Vegas Raiders beat the Jets 38-33. Gay is 18 of 20 this season.

Fifth: Zane Gonzalez, 52 yards, Miami Dolphins

Zane Gonzalez made a 52-yarder in the second quarter of a tie game. Kickers made 71.9% from 51 to 53 yards over the last five seasons. The Miami Dolphins lost 24-19 to New England, and he missed a 43-yarder wide left in the fourth quarter.

The one that got away

No kick this week fit our heartbreaker rule: a fourth-quarter or overtime miss by a team that went on to lose, one that would have tied the game or taken the lead. The longest miss was a 61-yarder by Dallas's Brandon Aubrey, wide right as the first half ended. Dallas led by 11 and the kick would have made it a 14-point game. From 60 yards and longer there was one try all week.

The week in numbers

Kickers made 4.0 fewer field goals than the model expected, with 6 of 12 from 50 or more.

How we pick the Kicks of the Week

Every made field goal gets a Kick Score: how unlikely it was (one minus the make chance, times 10), plus 0.15 for each yard past 45, plus the moment: 8 for a walk-off winner, 4 for a go-ahead kick, 3 for a tying kick, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime kick in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on kicks with a make chance of 60% or less and shrinks on chip shots, so a long bomb can outrank a short winner. Make chances come from the same distance and conditions model behind the MAKE Rankings. A kicker can appear at most twice. Last week: NFL Kicks of the Week, Week 7: Cairo Santos Ties the Bears Record From 58.

Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); make chances, Kick Scores and MAKE by FKS.