MAKE: Makes Above Kicks Expected
How FootballKickingStats.com rates field goal kickers: every kick against the chance it would go in.
MAKE (Makes Above Kicks Expected) is FootballKickingStats.com's kicker rating: every field goal made minus the chance an average kicker would make it, added up over the season. Will Reichard led the NFL in 2025 at +4.0 MAKE.
What MAKE means
For every field goal attempt we estimate the chance that an average kicker would make it from that distance in those conditions. A make earns the part of the kick that was not expected (1 minus the chance); a miss loses the chance. Added up over a season, MAKE is how many more field goals a kicker made than an average kicker would have made on the same kicks.
A MAKE of +3.0 means three field goals more than expected; −2.0 means two fewer; 0 is league average. MAKE is built on the standard made-over-expected idea used across sports analytics; what is ours is the model behind the expected chance and the way we show it, kick by kick.
How one kick is scored
| Kick | Expected make chance | MAKE for this kick |
|---|---|---|
| 30 yards, made | 97% | +0.03 |
| 50 yards, made | 74% | +0.26 |
| 50 yards, missed | 74% | −0.74 |
| 58 yards, made | 60% | +0.40 |
NFL model for 2025, outdoors, no wind, above 40°F, at sea level. A short make adds almost nothing; a long make adds a lot, and a short miss costs almost a whole field goal.
What goes into the expected make chance
- Distance, with a curve, because the chance falls faster as kicks get longer.
- Extra decline past 55 yards (NFL), because very long kicks go in less often than a smooth curve predicts.
- Indoors, cold (under 40°F outdoors), wind speed (outdoors) and altitude.
The NFL model is fit on 5,594 field goals from the five seasons ending in 2025; the college model on 8,043 FBS field goals from 2023 to 2025. Each window rolls forward every season, so kickers are measured against their own era. A term that fits the wrong way in a season (more wind giving better odds, say) is left out.
| Distance | NFL expected make chance | College expected make chance |
|---|---|---|
| 25 yards | 99% | 93% |
| 30 yards | 97% | 88% |
| 35 yards | 93% | 82% |
| 40 yards | 88% | 74% |
| 45 yards | 81% | 65% |
| 50 yards | 74% | 56% |
| 55 yards | 70% | 48% |
| 60 yards | 53% | 41% |
Outdoors, no wind, above 40°F, at sea level.
How to read the MAKE Rankings
MAKE is a season total, so it rewards a kicker who is trusted with many kicks and makes the hard ones. To compare kickers with different workloads, use MAKE per 100 kicks (NFL · college). A kicker needs at least 15 attempts in an NFL season and 10 in a college season to be ranked; while a season is being played that minimum is scaled to the weeks played.
What MAKE cannot see
The public play-by-play does not record the snap, the hold, the hash mark, operation time or the wind at the moment of the kick (wind is the game's reading), so a bad snap counts against the kicker the same as a bad kick. MAKE covers field goals only: extra points, kickoffs and punts are measured on their own pages (punters by net average and Touchbacks Avoided (STOP Rank)).
2025 NFL MAKE Leaders
| Rk | Kicker | Team | FG | MAKE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Reichard | Minnesota Vikings | 33-35 | +4.0 |
| 2 | Eddy Pineiro | San Francisco 49ers | 28-29 | +3.9 |
| 3 | Nick Folk | New York Jets | 28-29 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Evan McPherson | Cincinnati Bengals | 25-28 | +2.9 |
| 5 | Ka'imi Fairbairn | Houston Texans | 44-48 | +2.8 |
| 6 | Riley Patterson | Miami Dolphins | 27-29 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Cam Little | Jacksonville Jaguars | 30-34 | +2.3 |
| 8 | Brandon Aubrey | Dallas Cowboys | 36-42 | +2.3 |
| 9 | Cameron Dicker | Los Angeles Chargers | 38-41 | +2.1 |
| 10 | Chris Boswell | Pittsburgh Steelers | 27-32 | +1.5 |
All 2025 NFL kickers ranked by MAKE
2025 College MAKE Leaders
| Rk | Kicker | School | FG | MAKE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tate Sandell | Oklahoma | 23-24 | +6.5 |
| 2 | Kansei Matsuzawa | Hawai'i | 25-26 | +5.0 |
| 3 | Noe Ruelas | UCF | 14-15 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Peyton Woodring | Georgia | 15-16 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Jackson Kleather | Bowling Green | 19-22 | +3.2 |
| 6 | Cooper Ranvier | Louisville | 21-24 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Damian Ramos | LSU | 24-28 | +3.1 |
| 8 | Patrick Durkin | Tulane | 24-27 | +2.9 |
| 9 | Gabriel Plascencia | San Diego State | 19-22 | +2.9 |
| 10 | Luca Lombardo | Boston College | 15-16 | +2.6 |
All 2025 college kickers ranked by MAKE
The 2026 NFL season is in progress: see the current 2026 NFL MAKE Rankings. The 2026 college season is in progress: see the current 2026 college MAKE Rankings.
Model terms (log-odds). NFL 2025: intercept 6.61548, per yard -0.11665, distance curve 0.28096, extra decline beyond 55 yards -1.24707 per 10 yards, indoors +0.15, cold −0.25, wind per 10 mph −0.14, altitude −0.06. College 2025: intercept 4.50184, per yard -0.08682, distance curve 0.08749, indoors +0.19, cold −0.14, wind per 10 mph −0.01, altitude +0.05. Full coverage notes: What we track (NFL) · What we track (college).