The Kick After the Miss: What Recovery Really Requires
A miss tells you what happened, not who you are
A missed kick is one result from one swing. What a kicker does with the next ten seconds matters more than the miss itself. This post covers what the numbers say about the next kick and a simple way to recover.
What the data shows about the next kick
We looked at every NFL field goal attempt in the 2024 and 2025 regular seasons. When a kicker missed or had a kick blocked and then got another attempt in the same game, he made 144 of 178, or 80.9%. A distance-only model expected 84.8% for those same kicks, so the next attempt was about four points lower than expected.
Four points sounds meaningful, but 178 kicks is a small sample. The margin of error is roughly three points either way, so we cannot say a miss changes the next kick at all. After a make, kickers made 85.5%, close to the 84.7% the model expected. Read it as one more reason not to treat a miss as a prediction.
What recovery really requires
Recovery is not forgetting the miss or pretending it did not matter. It means getting your attention back on the next job quickly. Three parts help.
- Name it, then park it. Say what happened in plain words: "Pushed it right." Then park it until the review. The result is information for later, not a verdict on you.
- Use a reset you have practiced. A short, repeatable sequence, such as one slow breath, a cue word, and eyes on the target, gives your mind something to do.
- Ask one process question. Not "Why do I always do this?" but "What is one thing I can repeat or adjust on the next swing?" Leave anything technical to the kicking coach, and keep sideline talk short.
What coaches and teammates can do
Short, steady, and forward-looking works best: "Next one." "You've got the next one." Avoid replaying the miss on the sideline or asking for an explanation in the moment. After the game, ask the kicker what they saw, and listen first. What Parents Can Say After Their Kicker Misses covers what parents can say.
When it lingers
A miss can sting for days, which is normal. If it keeps showing up in sleep, schoolwork, or your mood well beyond football, talk with a trusted adult or a licensed mental health professional. This article is coaching education, not treatment, and no routine guarantees a result.
Data: nflverse (CC BY 4.0), regular seasons 2024 and 2025; calculations by FKS.
Disclosure: FootballKickingStats.com is part of the A-Game network.
Sources
- nflverse play-by-play, 2024 and 2025 regular seasons, with a distance-only expected-make model fit by FKS (methods in Why Field-Goal Percentage Can Tell the Wrong Story).
- Calculation: kicks that followed a missed or blocked field goal by the same kicker in the same game.