NFL Kicks of the Week, Week 6: Ka'imi Fairbairn Answers From 49 at Wembley
Cam Little tied the Texans at 31 with a 60-yard field goal at Wembley. Then Ka'imi Fairbairn got the last word, a 49-yarder as time expired, and Houston won 34-31. Our model gave his kick a 77% chance before the snap. It's the Kick of the Week: the game-winner in London, and the answer to the longest kick of the week.
Kick of the Week: Ka'imi Fairbairn, 49 yards, walk-off at Wembley
Watch the full NFL Play By Play of the Game Ending Kicks - Fireworks in London!
Houston led 31-28 and was driving to put it away when Travis Hunter intercepted C.J. Stroud in the end zone. Jacksonville turned that into a 60-yard field goal from Cam Little, one week after his 57-yard winner against the Eagles, and the game was tied 31-31 with about two minutes left.
Stroud got the ball back with just under two minutes to play. A 19-yard catch by Woody Marks on third-and-2 got the Texans across midfield, and Ka'imi Fairbairn came on for a 49-yarder on Wembley's slick grass. Austin Brinkman snapped, Kai Kroeger held, and the kick was good as time expired. Fairbairn, a 2012 Punahou School graduate from Honolulu, had also kicked a 25-yarder in the second quarter.
From 48 to 50 yards, NFL kickers made 348 of 457 tries over the last five seasons, 76%. That's about one miss in four, and Fairbairn had no second chance. On our Kick Score this one scored 9.56, third for the week, because a 49-yarder is more makeable than Lutz's 53 or Little's 60. We put it first anyway because of the kicker duel on display. It won the game in London, on the last play, after the other kicker had just hit from 60. Fairbairn is 13 of 14 this season, 4 of 5 from 50 or more, with a long of 58. The Houston Texans are 2-4 and have won two straight.
Runner-up: Wil Lutz, 53 yards, overtime winner on Thursday night
Seattle's Jason Myers tied the game with a 34-yarder with three seconds left in regulation. In overtime, Ja'Quan McMillian intercepted Sam Darnold at the Seattle 43, and Wil Lutz won it from 53 with 4:53 left in the extra period. Broncos 17, Seahawks 14. The kick had a 72% make chance and the week's top Kick Score, 11.12. It was Lutz's longest of the season. The Denver Broncos are 4-2.
Third: Cam Little, 60 yards, tying it in London
The longest kick of the week, and the only try from 60 or more. Cam Little made it with a new snapper: Jacob Bobenmoyer, signed after All-Pro Ross Matiscik was ruled out with a shoulder injury. Kickers made 38 of 66 tries from 59 to 61 yards over the last five seasons, 58%, and our model had this one at 55%. Little is 3 of 4 from 55 or more this season. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-2.
Fourth: Chris Boswell, 58 yards, starting the comeback in Tampa
Pittsburgh trailed 16-3 in the fourth quarter. Chris Boswell tied it 16-16 from 58 with 1:55 left. Two plays later Jamel Dean intercepted Jalon Daniels and returned it to the Tampa Bay 3, and Boswell's 20-yarder with 1:21 left gave the Steelers their first lead. Chase McLaughlin answered from 53 with eight seconds left, and Aaron Rodgers won it in overtime with a touchdown pass to Germie Bernard. Boswell went 4 of 5, with a 52-yarder before halftime and a miss from 48. That 52-yarder tied Gary Anderson's Steelers record of 309 field goals, and his 39-yarder in the fourth quarter made him the franchise leader, the team announced. The Pittsburgh Steelers won 26-19.
Fifth: Chad Ryland, 43 yards, six for six at SoFi
Chad Ryland scored every one of Arizona's 18 points. He made field goals from 34, 30, 22, 38 and 27 yards, then the Rams went ahead 16-15 with 47 seconds left. A 21-yard completion to Jalen Brooks and a roughness penalty got the Cardinals in range, and Ryland hit from 43 as time expired. The Arizona Cardinals won 18-16.
The one that got away
No team lost after missing a fourth-quarter or overtime kick that would have tied the game or put it ahead this week. The closest was in Cleveland, and it ended well: Andre Szmyt missed a 48-yarder wide left with the game tied and 3:44 to play, then won it from 37 on the last play. The Cleveland Browns beat Baltimore 13-10.
The week in numbers
| Stat | This week |
|---|---|
| Field goals made | 60 of 67 (89.6%) |
| Expected makes for those kicks | 57.2 |
| 50+ yards | 13 of 16 |
| 55+ yards | 5 of 7 |
| Under 40 yards | 30 of 30 |
| Walk-off field goals | 4 |
| Longest make | 60 yards, Cam Little (Jacksonville Jaguars) |
| MAKE leader for the week | Joey Slye (Tennessee Titans), 4-4, MAKE +0.75 |
How we pick the Kicks of the Week
Every made field goal gets a Kick Score: how unlikely it was (one minus the make chance, times 10), plus 0.15 for each yard past 45, plus the moment: 8 for a walk-off winner, 4 for a go-ahead kick, 3 for a tying kick, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime kick in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on kicks with a make chance of 60% or less and shrinks on chip shots, so a long bomb can outrank a short winner. Make chances come from the same distance and conditions model behind the MAKE Rankings. A kicker can appear at most twice. The score is a starting point: this week we moved Fairbairn's winner to the top for the story around it and left every score as computed. Last week: NFL Kicks of the Week, Week 5: Cam Little Silences the Eagles From 57 in London.
Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); make chances, Kick Scores and MAKE by FKS.