Why Field-Goal Percentage Can Tell the Wrong Story
Field goal percentage hides how hard the kicks were
Two NFL kickers finished the 2025 regular season with the same record: 27 made field goals on 32 attempts, or 84.4%. One kicked from an average of 43.3 yards and the other from 36.8. A percentage alone cannot tell you which season was harder.
Distance changes everything
| Distance band | 2024 made / attempts | 2024 | 2025 made / attempts | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30 yards | 231 / 238 | 97.1% | 206 / 210 | 98.1% |
| 30 to 39 | 280 / 297 | 94.3% | 278 / 299 | 93.0% |
| 40 to 49 | 231 / 301 | 76.7% | 264 / 313 | 84.3% |
| 50 to 59 | 191 / 264 | 72.3% | 171 / 244 | 70.1% |
| 60 and over | 4 / 15 | 26.7% | 12 / 22 | 54.5% |
| All field goals | 937 / 1,115 | 84.0% | 931 / 1,088 | 85.6% |
Source: nflverse play-by-play, regular seasons. A blocked kick counts as not made.
A kicker who only attempts short kicks will post a near-perfect percentage. A kicker trusted with long ones will not, even if they are just as good. Across all kicks, the average distance was 40.1 yards in 2024 and 40.5 in 2025.
Same percentage, different seasons
To compare fairly, we estimate how often an average NFL kicker makes a kick from each distance. Using 2024 and 2025 regular-season attempts, a simple model puts that chance at about 98% from 20 yards, 95% from 30, 89% from 40, 76% from 50, and 55% from 60. Adding up those chances for a kicker's attempts gives the number of makes we would expect from an average kicker, which we compare with what they actually made.
| Kicker (2025) | Made / attempts | FG% | Average distance | Attempts from 50+ | Expected makes | Makes over expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Boswell, Steelers | 27 / 32 | 84.4% | 43.3 yds | 11 | 25.8 | +1.2 |
| Andrés Borregales, Patriots | 27 / 32 | 84.4% | 36.8 yds | 4 | 28.3 | -1.3 |
| Joey Slye, Titans | 28 / 35 | 80.0% | 44.1 yds | 14 | 28.0 | 0.0 |
| Brandon McManus, Packers | 24 / 30 | 80.0% | 37.5 yds | 5 | 26.1 | -2.1 |
| Harrison Butker, Chiefs | 33 / 38 | 86.8% | 39.2 yds | 8 | 32.5 | +0.5 |
| Brandon Aubrey, Cowboys | 36 / 42 | 85.7% | 43.3 yds | 17 | 33.5 | +2.5 |
Boswell and Borregales tie on percentage, but Boswell attempted 11 kicks from 50 or more and Borregales only four. Boswell made 1.2 more kicks than average; Borregales made 1.3 fewer. Slye and McManus also tie at 80.0%, with Slye facing the harder kicks. And Butker's percentage is higher than Aubrey's, yet Aubrey kicked 17 times from 50 or more and finished 2.5 makes above expected.
What this model can and cannot say
This is a distance-only illustration, not our MAKE rating. MAKE also adjusts for weather, altitude, and roof, which can move a kicker's number in either direction. A season has only 30 to 40 kicks, so a gap of one or two makes is within what luck can produce; a planned follow-up, "How Many Attempts Does It Take to Judge a Kicker?", covers how much evidence a season gives.
Treat the table as a better question, not a final grade. A percentage tells you how often a kicker succeeded. Makes over expected tells you how that compares with what their kicks usually produce.
How to read a kicker's line
- Check the attempts. Under 20 is a small sample.
- Look at the distance mix, especially attempts from 40 to 49 and 50 or more.
- Compare makes with expected makes, or use MAKE per 100 kicks.
- Remember that a block can come from protection or the snap, not only the kick; play data does not say which.
See all of this for every kicker in the Rankings.
Data: nflverse (CC BY 4.0), regular seasons 2024 and 2025; calculations by FKS.
Sources
- nflverse play-by-play, regular seasons 2024 and 2025 (CC BY 4.0), field goal attempts with result made, missed, or blocked.
- Expected-make model: logistic regression of make probability on kick distance, fit on 2,203 attempts.
- Average distance is the mean of attempted kicks, made or missed.
- Approach follows distance-based expected-points work such as CollegeFootballData's PAAR.