College Kicks of the Week, Week 8: Dawson Jones Walks Off Tulsa From 50
By FKS Journal · Published · 4 min read
Army blew a 14-point lead at Tulsa, tied it late, and then left it to Dawson Jones. He hit a 50-yarder on the final play, and the Black Knights won 38-35 on Friday night. Our model gave the kick a 57% chance. It was the hardest of four walk-off field goals this week, and the Kick of the Week.
Kick of the Week: Dawson Jones, 50 yards, Army at Tulsa
Tulsa scored 21 straight points to lead 35-28 early in the fourth quarter. Then David Jakande blocked a Tulsa punt and recovered it at the 13, and quarterback Cale Hellums scored from a yard out with 1:50 left to tie it. Army got one more chance, and Dawson Jones came out for a 50-yarder on the game's final play. It was good.
Dawson Jones, 50 yards · Army vs. TulsaMoment Walk-off winnerClock at the snap Q4 0:00Score before TiedFinal Army won 38-35Conditions Outdoors, 66°F, wind 3 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.
Jones had already set a career long with a 51-yarder in the first quarter, and added a 34-yarder before halftime. He went 3-for-3 and was second in MAKE for the week. From 49 to 51 yards, college kickers made 474 of 814 tries over the last five seasons, 58%, so this was close to a coin flip with the game on it. Jones is 7 of 9 this season. The Army Black Knights are 5-2.
Runner-up: Malik Orsan, 48 yards, South Carolina over No. 11 Tennessee
Malik Orsan, 48 yards · South Carolina vs. TennesseeMoment Walk-off winnerClock at the snap Q4 0:00Score before TiedFinal South Carolina won 27-24Conditions Outdoors, 71°F, wind 4 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.
South Carolina had lost three straight. LaNorris Sellers tied the game at 24 with a touchdown with 1:17 left, Dylan Stewart strip-sacked George MacIntyre, and Tomiwa Durojaiye recovered with 33 seconds to go. Malik Orsan finished it from 48 with 3 seconds left. It was a 61% kick. Orsan is 10 of 12 this season and 2 for 2 from 50 or more. The South Carolina Gamecocks won 27-24.
Third: Luke Drzewiecki, 46 yards, Minnesota over Iowa
Luke Drzewiecki, 46 yards · Minnesota vs. IowaMoment Walk-off winnerClock at the snap Q4 0:00Score before TiedFinal Minnesota won 13-10Conditions Outdoors, 73°F, wind 6 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.
Fourth: James London, 40 yards, App State in overtime
James London, 40 yards · App State vs. James MadisonMoment Walk-off winnerClock at the snap OT 0:00Score before TiedFinal App State won 34-31Operation Snap: Parker Stone · Hold: Jaxson DunnConditions Outdoors, 57°F, wind 9 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.
James London made four field goals on Thursday night, the last a 40-yarder in overtime that handed James Madison its first loss of the season. App State won 34-31. Parker Stone snapped and Jaxson Dunn held. London is 12 of 14 this season.
Fifth: Matthias Dunn, 47 yards, to tie UCF
Matthias Dunn, 47 yards · BYU vs. UCFMoment Game-tying kickClock at the snap Q4 12:09Score before BYU down 3Final UCF won 39-31Operation Snap: Ty Smith · Hold: Fuller ShurtzConditions Outdoors, 76°F, wind 9 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.
Down three early in the fourth quarter at UCF, BYU sent Matthias Dunn out for a 47-yarder with 12:09 left. It was good, and the game was tied. Our model gave it 62.5%. UCF won 39-31.
The one that got away
Morgan Suarez, 47 yards · James Madison vs. App StateClock at the snap OT 0:00Score before TiedFinal App State won 34-31Operation Snap: Michell Dietzel · Hold: Patrick ReaConditions Outdoors, 57°F, wind 9 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.
James Madison came into Thursday night 7-0. In overtime the Dukes had the ball first, and Morgan Suarez lined up a 47-yarder. He had made one from the same distance in the fourth quarter. This one hit the upright, and App State won it on the next possession. Our model put the kick at 62.5%. A 47-yarder is far from automatic in college: kickers made 694 of 1,122 from 46 to 48 yards over the last five seasons, 62%. Suarez is 13 of 17 this season.
Utah State's Kian Afrookhteh missed a 48-yarder in the final seconds, down three at Texas State, and the Bobcats won 20-17. He had made a 48-yarder in the first quarter. Baylor's Rhett Armstrong had a 45-yarder blocked with 18 seconds on the clock at the snap and Baylor down one at Kansas, and the Jayhawks won 25-24. A block is as much about protection as the kick.
The week in numbers
The week in numbers table
Stat
This week
Field goals made
143 of 194 (73.7%)
Expected makes for those kicks
145.7
50+ yards
8 of 21
55+ yards
0 of 5
Under 40 yards
91 of 99
Walk-off field goals
4
Longest make
54 yards, Jack Cassidy (West Virginia)
MAKE leader for the week
Dominic Bourgeois (Middle Tennessee), 4-4, MAKE +1.21
Every field goal try of 50+ yards, College Week 8 Made MissedEach mark sits where the ball was held; the goalposts are on the right. Marks at the same distance are spread out so they don't overlap.
How we pick the Kicks of the Week
Every made field goal gets a Kick Score: how unlikely it was (one minus the make chance, times 10), plus 0.15 for each yard past 45, plus the moment: 8 for a walk-off winner, 4 for a go-ahead kick, 3 for a tying kick, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime kick in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on kicks with a make chance of 60% or less and shrinks on chip shots, so a long bomb can outrank a short winner. Make chances come from the same distance and conditions model behind the MAKE Rankings. A kicker can appear at most twice. College numbers cover every game with an FBS team in it. Last week: College Kicks of the Week, Week 7: Cooper DiLeva Keeps the Oil Can From 53.
Data: CollegeFootballData.com play-by-play; make chances, Kick Scores and MAKE by FKS.
43%Houston Texans, the highest share (174 of 404 points)
22%Buffalo Bills, the lowest share (105 of 481 points)
Kicker points are 3 per field goal and 1 per extra point, divided by each team’s points in the same games. A high share can mean a great kicker, or an offense that often stalls before the end zone, so read it next to MAKE.
Explore the Rankings
Field goals, kickoffs, punters and long snappers: leaders, every leaderboard and a full ranking table for each.
