NFL Kicks of the Week, Week 7: Cairo Santos Ties the Bears Record From 58
Cairo Santos hit the right upright from 53 early in the fourth quarter. Later, with the Bears up six and under two minutes left, he asked for a 58-yarder and made it, the longest kick of his career and a tie for the longest in Bears history. Our model gave it a 61% chance before the snap. It's the Kick of the Week.
Kick of the Week: Cairo Santos, 58 yards, Bears vs. Patriots
Chicago led New England 27-21 on Thursday night at Soldier Field. Earlier in the fourth quarter, Cairo Santos had hit the inside of the right upright from 53, a kick that would have made it a two-score game. Now the Bears faced fourth down at the Patriots' 40 with 1:39 left, and Ben Johnson weighed a punt. He asked special teams coordinator Richard Hightower whether Santos wanted the kick. Santos, standing nearby, did: "I told HT, 'I want it.'"
Scott Daly snapped, Tory Taylor held, and the 58-yarder was good. It was Santos's career long, three yards past his old best of 55, and it tied Robbie Gould's 58 from 2013 as the longest field goal in Bears history. It was also his 28th make from 50 yards or more as a Bear, the most in team history. "He came through for us in a big way," Johnson said.
From 57 to 59 yards, NFL kickers made 90 of 143 tries over the last five seasons, 63%. Santos needed one right after a miss from shorter, with the game still in reach for New England. The kick mattered: the Patriots added a 47-yard field goal in the final minute, and the Chicago Bears won by six. They are 5-2. Santos is 11 of 15 this season and 3 of 5 from 50 or more.
Runner-up: Ka'imi Fairbairn, 58 yards, Texans vs. Giants
Ka'imi Fairbairn hit a 58-yarder in the first quarter with the game tied, under the closed roof. Last week's Kick of the Week winner went 2-for-2, both from 57 or longer, and led the week in MAKE. The Houston Texans lost 27-21. Fairbairn is 15 of 16 this season and 6 of 7 from 50 or more.
Third: Andre Szmyt, 32 yards, walk-off at Tennessee
Tennessee tied the game at 24 with under a minute left. Deshaun Watson then drove the Browns 55 yards in four plays, with a 36-yard catch by Harold Fannin Jr., and Andre Szmyt hit from 32 as time ran out. It was a 96% kick, and he had banged a 43-yarder off the right upright early in the fourth quarter. Last week he beat Baltimore from 37 on the final play. The Cleveland Browns are 5-2.
Fourth: Ka'imi Fairbairn, 57 yards, Texans vs. Giants
Fairbairn's second long one came in the second quarter, with Houston down four. From 56 to 58 yards, NFL kickers made 62% over the last five seasons. He made both in one half.
Fifth: Jake Bates, 22 yards, walk-off against Green Bay
Detroit let the clock run to one second, and Jake Bates kicked a 22-yarder on the final play to beat Green Bay 20-17. A chip shot, but a walk-off all the same, and Bates is 10 for 10 this season. Hogan Hatten snapped and Jack Fox held. The Detroit Lions are 4-2.
The one that got away
Packers rookie Trey Smack lined up a 35-yarder with the game tied and 3:25 on the clock at the snap. Our model put it at 94%: from 34 to 36 yards, NFL kickers made 422 of 460 over the last five seasons. D.J. Wonnum got a finger on it, and the kick was blocked. Blocks are a protection and operation problem as much as a kicker problem. Detroit then drove for Bates's winner. Smack had also missed a 26-yarder wide right in the first quarter. Matt LaFleur said afterward, "we know Trey is capable of making those."
Indianapolis's Spencer Shrader missed a 48-yarder wide right with the Colts down three and 4:27 to play at Minnesota, and the Vikings won 16-10. Shrader is still 19 of 21 this season.
The week in numbers
| Stat | This week |
|---|---|
| Field goals made | 40 of 54 (74.1%) |
| Expected makes for those kicks | 46.6 |
| 50+ yards | 5 of 12 |
| 55+ yards | 3 of 7 |
| Under 40 yards | 24 of 26 |
| Walk-off field goals | 2 |
| Longest make | 58 yards, Cairo Santos (Chicago Bears) and Ka'imi Fairbairn (Houston Texans) |
| MAKE leader for the week | Ka'imi Fairbairn (Houston Texans), 2-2, MAKE +0.71 |
Thursday and Sunday games only; Monday night's Cowboys-Eagles game was not in the data when we wrote this. Kickers made 6.6 fewer field goals than the model expected, and only 5 of 12 from 50 or more.
How we pick the Kicks of the Week
Every made field goal gets a Kick Score: how unlikely it was (one minus the make chance, times 10), plus 0.15 for each yard past 45, plus the moment: 8 for a walk-off winner, 4 for a go-ahead kick, 3 for a tying kick, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime kick in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on kicks with a make chance of 60% or less and shrinks on chip shots, so a long bomb can outrank a short winner. Make chances come from the same distance and conditions model behind the MAKE Rankings. A kicker can appear at most twice. Last week: NFL Kicks of the Week, Week 6: Ka'imi Fairbairn Answers From 49 at Wembley.
Data: nflverse play-by-play (CC BY 4.0); make chances, Kick Scores and MAKE by FKS.