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KICKS OF THE WEEK · FKS BLOG

College Kicks of the Week, Week 1: Lucas Carneiro Walks Off Louisville in Nashville

By FKS Journal · Published · 4 min read

Pete Golding's first game as Ole Miss head coach was a shootout with Louisville at Nissan Stadium, tied at 38 with 1:28 left. The Rebels drove 40 yards, called their last timeout with three seconds left, and Lucas Carneiro hit a 48-yarder as time expired. No. 9 Ole Miss 41, No. 24 Louisville 38. Our model gave the kick a 61% chance.

Kick of the Week: Lucas Carneiro, 48 yards, Ole Miss over Louisville

Video: Ole Miss vs. Louisville Game Highlights | 2026 ACC Football (ACC Digital Network on YouTube)

Louisville tied it at 38 with 1:28 left. Trinidad Chambliss moved Ole Miss 40 yards in eight plays, including an 18-yard completion on third-and-6, and the Rebels used their final timeout at the Louisville 31 with three seconds left. Lucas Carneiro came out for a 48-yarder and split the uprights as time expired.

Lucas Carneiro, 48-yard field goal: goodSnapped from the opponent 31-yard line and held at the 38; the goalposts are 48 yards away. Make chance before the kick: 61%.404050504040303020201010LINE: OPP 3148 YARDSLCLUCAS CARNEIRO · OLE MISSGOODMAKE CHANCE 61%
Lucas Carneiro, 48 yards · Ole Miss vs. LouisvilleMoment Walk-off winnerClock at the snap Q4 0:00Score before TiedFinal Ole Miss won 41-38Conditions Outdoors, 88°F, wind 9 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.

Carneiro made a 43-yarder to tie it at 3 in the second quarter and missed from 46 before halftime, so this was his third try of the night. College kickers made 619 of 1,023 tries from 47 to 49 yards over the five seasons before this one, 61%, right in line with our model. Golding called it a heavyweight fight, and the Ole Miss Rebels got the last punch.

Runner-up: Antonio Chadha, 58 yards, Pitt vs. Miami (OH)

Antonio Chadha, 58-yard field goal: goodSnapped from the opponent 41-yard line and held at the 48; the goalposts are 58 yards away. Make chance before the kick: 44%.404050504040303020201010LINE: OPP 4158 YARDSACANTONIO CHADHA · PITTSBURGHGOODMAKE CHANCE 44%
Antonio Chadha, 58 yards · Pittsburgh vs. Miami (OH)Clock at the snap Q2 0:00Score before Pittsburgh up 14Final Pittsburgh won 59-14Conditions Outdoors, 81°F, wind 4 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.

Antonio Chadha hit a 58-yarder as the first half ended, with a 44% make chance, in a 59-14 Pitt win. College kickers made 28 of 76 from 57 to 59 yards over the previous five seasons.

Third: Gage Hurych, 44 yards, Oregon vs. Boise State

Gage Hurych, 44-yard field goal: goodSnapped from the opponent 27-yard line and held at the 34; the goalposts are 44 yards away. Make chance before the kick: 68%.404050504040303020201010LINE: OPP 2744 YARDSGHGAGE HURYCH · OREGONGOODMAKE CHANCE 68%
Gage Hurych, 44 yards · Oregon vs. Boise StateMoment Go-ahead kickClock at the snap Q4 14:49Score before TiedFinal Oregon won 34-27Operation Snap: RJ Todd · Hold: Bailey EttridgeConditions Outdoors, 68°F, wind 2 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.

The game was tied at the start of the fourth quarter when Gage Hurych put Oregon ahead with a 44-yarder. The Ducks won 34-27.

Fourth: Liam Boyd, 51 yards, Michigan State vs. Toledo

Liam Boyd, 51-yard field goal: goodSnapped from the opponent 34-yard line and held at the 41; the goalposts are 51 yards away. Make chance before the kick: 56%.404050504040303020201010LINE: OPP 3451 YARDSLBLIAM BOYD · MICHIGAN STATEGOODMAKE CHANCE 56%
Liam Boyd, 51 yards · Michigan State vs. ToledoMoment Fourth quarter, one-score gameClock at the snap Q4 1:55Score before Michigan State up 7Final Michigan State won 30-20Operation Snap: Nick Duzansky · Hold: Rhys DakinConditions Outdoors, 73°F, wind 2 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.

Up seven with 1:55 left, Michigan State let Liam Boyd try a 51-yarder. He made it, the Spartans won 30-20, and Boyd went 5-for-5 to lead all kickers in MAKE for the week.

Fifth: Brody Boehm, 54 yards, Ball State at Ohio State

Brody Boehm, 54-yard field goal: goodSnapped from the opponent 37-yard line and held at the 44; the goalposts are 54 yards away. Make chance before the kick: 51%.404050504040303020201010LINE: OPP 3754 YARDSBBBRODY BOEHM · BALL STATEGOODMAKE CHANCE 51%
Brody Boehm, 54 yards · Ball State vs. Ohio StateClock at the snap Q2 1:17Score before Ball State down 21Final Ohio State won 56-3Operation Snap: Caden Britton · Hold: Cole StumbaughConditions Outdoors, 81°F, wind 2 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.

Ohio State won 56-3. The 3 was Brody Boehm's 54-yarder late in the first half, a 51% kick by our model.

The one that got away

Aidan Birr, 45-yard field goal: blockedSnapped from the opponent 28-yard line and held at the 35; the goalposts are 45 yards away. Make chance before the kick: 66%.404050504040303020201010LINE: OPP 2845 YARDSABAIDAN BIRR · GEORGIA TECHBLOCKEDMAKE CHANCE 66%
Aidan Birr, 45 yards · Georgia Tech vs. ColoradoClock at the snap Q4 0:03Score before Georgia Tech down 1Final Colorado won 14-13Operation Snap: Ronnie Thomas III · Hold: Alex BacchettaConditions Outdoors, 80°F, wind 6 mphMake chance from distance and conditions (FKS model). The hash is not in public play-by-play, so the kick is drawn from the middle.

Georgia Tech and Colorado played a low-scoring game with two blocked kicks in the fourth quarter. Georgia Tech blocked a Colorado field goal with 7:35 left. Aidan Birr then made a 29-yarder with 1:40 left to put the Yellow Jackets up six, Colorado scored a touchdown to lead 14-13, and Birr's 45-yarder to win it with three seconds left was blocked.

SMU's Nick Reed also won a game on the final kick, a 20-yarder against Florida State in a 27-24 win.

The week in numbers

The week in numbers table
StatThis week
Field goals made166 of 218 (76.1%)
Expected makes for those kicks167.2
50+ yards11 of 23
55+ yards1 of 2
Under 40 yards107 of 128
Walk-off field goals2
Longest make58 yards, Antonio Chadha (Pittsburgh)
MAKE leader for the weekLiam Boyd (Michigan State), 5-5, MAKE +1.43
Every field goal try of 50+ yards, College Week 111 made of 23: Garrison Rippa 52 missed; Ilya Uvaydov 51 missed; Liam Boyd 51 made; Enock Gota 51 missed; Carl Hardin 51 missed; Nico Gramatica 53 made; Derek Morris 52 made; Spencer Porath 52 made; Antonio Chadha 58 made; Brody Boehm 54 made; Dominic De Freitas 55 missed; Stephen Rusnak 54 made; Caden Buhr 53 missed; Carlos Arreola 50 missed; Grant Glasgow 50 missed; Dieter Kelly 52 made; Jorge Diaz Nicolas 52 missed; Dawson Jones 54 missed; Kali Nguma 54 missed; Abram Murray 52 made; Jack Stevens 52 missed; Patrick Durkin 53 made; Carter Cremascoli 52 made40405050404030302020101011 OF 23 MADE
Every field goal try of 50+ yards, College Week 1 Made MissedEach mark sits where the ball was held; the goalposts are on the right. Marks at the same distance are spread out so they don't overlap.

How we pick the Kicks of the Week

Every made field goal gets a Kick Score: how unlikely it was (one minus the make chance, times 10), plus 0.15 for each yard past 45, plus the moment: 8 for a walk-off winner, 4 for a go-ahead kick, 3 for a tying kick, 1 for any other fourth-quarter or overtime kick in a one-score game. The moment counts in full on kicks with a make chance of 60% or less and shrinks on chip shots, so a long bomb can outrank a short winner. Make chances come from the same distance and conditions model behind the MAKE Rankings. A kicker can appear at most twice. College numbers cover every game with an FBS team in it. Next week: College Kicks of the Week, Week 2: Caden Buhr Wins the Cy-Hawk.

Data: CollegeFootballData.com play-by-play; make chances, Kick Scores and MAKE by FKS.

Sources

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2025 Points Scored by Kickers

Field goals are worth 3 points and extra points 1. Share is the kicker's points divided by his team's points in the games he kicked in.

Share of His Team's Points

Teams with at least three-quarters of the typical team's points
1Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU45.5% 160 of 352
2Blake Grupe NO40.9% 112 of 274
3Cameron Dicker LAC40.2% 148 of 368
4Joey Slye TEN40.1% 110 of 274
5Will Reichard MIN37.8% 130 of 344
6Nick Folk NYJ36.3% 106 of 292
7Harrison Butker KC35.9% 130 of 362
8Jason Myers SEA35.4% 171 of 483
9Riley Patterson MIA33.9% 115 of 339
10Chase McLaughlin TB33.7% 128 of 380
11Brandon McManus GB33.5% 104 of 310
12Brandon Aubrey DAL32.9% 155 of 471
13Ryan Fitzgerald CAR31.8% 99 of 311
14Tyler Loop BAL31.6% 134 of 424
15Eddy Pineiro SF31.6% 118 of 374

How Much of the Scoreboard Is the Kicker?

32.0%of all NFL points came from kicking
43%Houston Texans, the highest share (174 of 404 points)
22%Buffalo Bills, the lowest share (105 of 481 points)

Kicker points are 3 per field goal and 1 per extra point, divided by each team’s points in the same games. A high share can mean a great kicker, or an offense that often stalls before the end zone, so read it next to MAKE.

Explore the Rankings

Field goals, kickoffs, punters and long snappers: leaders, every leaderboard and a full ranking table for each.

FROM THE FKS BLOG

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